Elections in the Republic of Moldova: a decisive vote for the country’s European future

On September 28, the Republic of Moldova held its parliamentary elections, with the stakes higher than ever. At the heart of these elections was a fundamental choice thought to directly influence the country’s strategic direction for the coming years: European integration or a return to Russia’s sphere of influence.

The high voter turnout, both in the country and abroad, confirmed the importance of these elections, resulting in Maia Sandu’s pro-European party, the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), obtaining over 50% of the votes and forming a majority government. The unexpected result for the pro-Russian opposition resulted in former president Igor Dodon calling people to the streets and claiming electoral fraud.

This would allow PAS to continue the process of accession to the European Union, with the clear objective of completing negotiations by 2028. However, the upcoming term in government is expected to be challenging. The party has been weakened after three years of managing crises like the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and high inflation. Meanwhile, the pro-Russian opposition is expected to continue its destabilizing strategies, even though the implementation of the reforms required for EU accession will demand constant efforts and visible results in raising living standards. The success or failure of these goals will determine whether the country continues its path towards the European Union or if it becomes vulnerable to the Kremlin’s influence again.

The weeks leading up to the elections were marked by an unprecedented intensification of Russian interference in the electoral process, both through propaganda operations and through direct influence on political actors in the Republic of Moldova.

According to journalistic investigations conducted by Ziarul de Gardă and the BBC, but also based on information provided by the Moldovan Intelligence and Security Service (SIS), Russia invested almost 200 million euros (the equivalent of 1% of Moldova’s GDP) to influence the outcome of the elections. The money was used to finance the Patriotic Bloc (an alliance founded by left-wing parties and controlled by former pro-Russian and anti-EU president Igor Dodon), support other parties with pro-Russian orientations, organize paid protests against PAS, and bribe voters (an operation coordinated by fugitive oligarch Ilan Șor, whose parties were banned in the Republic of Moldova).

In parallel, Russian intelligence services launched massive misinformation campaigns. The official website of Russia’s foreign intelligence service published false narratives according to which “Europe is preparing to invade Moldova through Romania.” These messages were then amplified on TikTok, Telegram, and through Russian-speaking media in the region.

On election day, Moldovan authorities confirmed that several polling stations organized abroad (in Rome, Genoa, Bucharest, Brussels, and Alicante) had received bomb threats. The government in Chisinau declared that these actions were part of a Russian-coordinated operation to create chaos and discourage voters.

The Russian interference operations identified in the Moldovan elections should not be looked at in isolation, but rather as part of a broader context of Moscow’s growing hybrid actions in Eastern Europe. In recent years, states in the region have increasingly reported attempts at political influence, misinformation campaigns or operations aimed at undermining citizens’ trust in democratic institutions. Only last year, the presidential elections in Romania were canceled as a result of coordinated external interference from Russia, aimed at spreading misinformation and destabilizing the democratic process. At the same time, in Poland and the Baltic states, there have been repeated reports of airspace violations by drones coming from the direction of Russia or Belarus. These incidents are seen by local authorities as pressure on NATO’s response capacity and part of a wider arsenal of hybrid tactics ranging from military intimidation to informational destabilization.

In a fragile geopolitical context, the Republic of Moldova showed that the fight for democracy and European integration is not won only through voting but also through defending democratic institutions. While the victory of PAS secured a pro-European majority, there are still many challenges that lie ahead, especially in a context in which Russian interference (both directly and indirectly through sophisticated hybrid tactics) remains a constant threat not only in Moldova but across the entire region.